Nuclear Escalation: Nuclear Weapons Geopolitics in China, India and Asia

Nuclear Institute Central England Branch.

Dev Mistry returns to give an extended and updated version of his excellent Speaking Competition winning talk on the unstable nuclear weapons geopolitical situation in Asia

Talk title: Nuclear Escalation: Assessing the Implications of China’s Nuclear Ambition on India’s Doctrine and Regional Stability in Asia

Synopsis: In the past decade, China has embarked on the fastest nuclear expansion of any recognised nuclear-armed state. Their nuclear arsenal has doubled from approximately 300 warheads in 2020 to an estimated 600 by 2025, with projections suggesting it may exceed 1,000 by 2030. This rapid growth – supported by new silo fields, advanced MIRV-equipped ICBMs, and expanded plutonium production capacities – has raised concerns among global security analysts.

This talk examines how China’s modernisation efforts, including potential doctrinal shifts around its long-standing No-First-Use policy, could increase the likelihood in reshaping India’s nuclear strategy. Although Indian policymakers do not foresee matching China warhead-for-warhead, they are responding by qualitatively strengthening deterrence through longer-range missiles, sea-based platforms, and enhanced readiness measures.

This talk will also explore how China’s expanding capabilities complicate India’s position between its two nuclear-armed neighbours. Historically, India’s doctrine was primarily Pakistan-focused. However, China’s rapid arsenal growth could force India to decouple its deterrence strategies for China and Pakistan. Pakistan may perceive diminished credibility in India’s minimum deterrence and react by expanding its own nuclear posture.

Recent events, including escalation during last May’s Operation Sindoor over disputed territory in Kashmir and its impact on Pakistan’s nuclear signalling, illustrate how fragile the region’s deterrence stability has become. Emerging technologies such as hypersonic glide vehicles further challenge strategic predictability.

This session evaluates whether China’s nuclear trajectory could trigger a new Asian arms race, transform crisis behaviour, and increase the likelihood of miscalculation in what could be one of the world’s most volatile nuclear triangles.

Light refreshments will be provided.